As a punter, you want to get the best return possible on the
money you use to bet. This you can achieve by placing a value bet. What is a
value bet? A value bet is a wager that is packed with good prices. A good price
(odds) is one that is above the statistical probability of an event occurring.
For example, if Manchester United has a statistical 50% chance of beating
Chelsea, the price should be 2.00. If you find a punter offering 2.30 on
Manchester United winning, then there is value as the odds offered for the win
is greater than the statistical possibility of the win occurring. A bet in
which selections picked offer value is called a value bet.
Finding a value bet
When you set out to look for value, you are searching for
percentages. For example, if Arsenal has 40% chance of winning a match at home,
the odds should be around 2.50. If you find a bigger offer, there is value. If
after your research, analysis and reading of the team news you conclude that
Arsenal will win the match, then betting on them offers value. But value is not
just restricted to a one-off game. You can get value through accumulators and
by betting on a team consistently.
A good example is say betting on West Ham United
consistently when playing at home. If you realize that West Ham has a 40%
chance of winning at home and expect odds to be around 2.50 continuously,
picking on them often when bookmakers give them odds of 2.80 or more in games
you think they will win offers value. In this case, long term betting on West
Ham means looking for value in the long run and not quick money. You are also
looking at a way in which you can reduce the risk and increase the reward in
the long run. In fact, even if out of 10 matches played at home West Ham
manages only 4 wins, you will still make profit if your stake is the same for
all the bets.
There is no much value on the favorites
While the favorites are usually more likely to win, they
usually don’t offer value. The reason for this is that bookmakers cut down
prices on the favorites in order to create a margin for profit. So the prices
on the favorites are usually shorter than the actual chance of them winning.
You are never going to get straight odds on the favorites and will always be
playing against the odds when you back the favorites. If you are looking for
value (selections which have better odds than their statistical chance of
winning), you may as well just ignore the favorites and bet on less favored teams.
Estimate probability v odds probability
You can arrive at estimate probability through research.
Once you research and analyze a team, you will be able to predict whether it
can win or not. You can also give an estimate probability of such a win. For
example, if Manchester United has played West Ham United 10 times at Old
Trafford and West Ham only managed 1 win and 3 draws, you can estimate that
Manchester United have around 60% chance of winning the match. While this is
not cast in stone and a win is not that guaranteed for Manchester United in the
match as other factors may influence how it pans out, the prediction you have
made is called estimate probability.
Odds probability is the probability you can calculate from
the odds. If you are looking at the match between Manchester United and West
Ham and find the odds for Manchester United as 1.80 while that for West Ham as
4.00, you can work back from the odds to arrive at the probability of both
events occurring. Odds probability is arbitrarily set by the bookmaker and may
not reflect the actual chance of the events occurring. The bookmaker sets such
odds to gain a profit margin.
To identify value, you need to look for a positive
difference between the odds probability and the estimate probability. For
example, if a team with 50% chance of winning in terms of estimate probability
is given odds of 2.50, you can identify value by 2.50-2.00 (odd probability
minus estimate probability), which gives a value of 0.50. There are many sites
offering odds comparison and with a little online research you can find value
before you bet.