The Over/Under football betting market is a type of goal
line bet in which you predict the total number of goals that a match will
produce. When you predict correctly that the total number of goals shall exceed
this number, you win when the number is exceeded but lose if the number is not
exceeded. Similarly, if you bet that the number of total goals shall be below
this number, you win if the number falls below that number and loses when the
number is exceeded.
The Over/Under goals market usually have half goals added to
the full goals to ensure that there is no tie in the outcome. The half goal is
said to “push” the outcome over or under the set goal line. For example, you
will find punters offering over/under 0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.4, 5.5 goals. If say you
back a match to produce over 2.5 goals, you win if the match produces 3 or more
goals, such as 2-1, 2-2, 3-0, 3-1, 4-0, 3-2 etc, but you lose if the result is
0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 2-0, 1-1. Most punters pick under when the two teams involved
are low-scoring across the season or recently, but will go for over when the
teams involved are high-scoring. Similarly, over is ideal when a high-scoring
team is facing one with a terrible defense.
How should you approach the over/under market?
(a) Research
thoroughly and check the statistics of the teams involved scrupulously
You can only make steady profit from the over/under market
after doing research on the teams involved. For example, you need to check the
average goals both teams have scored during the season. If both teams are
averaging about 1 goal per game then you should expect a low scoring duel. On
the contrary, if both teams have been scoring more than an average of 1.3 goals
per game then you can expect them to score plenty in the match. Likewise, you
should check out the percentage of games that the two teams were involved in
over/under 2.5 goals. Teams with good defense or poor attacks should also be
factored.
Another area you should research is the number of goals
produced in the previous meetings between the two teams. If for example, 75% of
all head-to-head games between the two teams have produced over 2.5 goals, then
you can safely bet on over 2.5. The total number of meetings should at least be
6 or more for you to clearly identify a trend in goals when the teams meet.
Other things you should check are teams going through a poor scoring run at
home or away from home, teams that are suddenly on an amazing run of scoring
form, and how many goals a team is scoring at home compared to when it is away.
(b) Team news
Keeping yourself abreast with team news is also critical.
For example, while the statistics may be showing that Chelsea scores a lot of
goals at home, the absence of their leading striker or attacking midfielder
through injury or suspension may reduce the number of goals they can score on a
given day. Likewise, if a team is missing their starting keeper or first-choice
defender may not be able to keep a clean sheet, even if the statistics show
that they rarely concede. Therefore, do not underestimate the value of team
news in over/under goals predictions.
What are the pros and cons of over/under betting?
Just like all other football betting markets, over/under
betting has pros and cons. One of the pros is that there are only two likely
results for the punter, you either win or loss, nothing like a draw. Another
important benefit is that you do not rely on any particular team winning. You
can win or loss an over/under bet no matter which team wins or loses the match.
The only thing you need is the number of goals to go under or to exceed your
predicted goal line. The limitation of over/under betting is that the bookmaker
has a greater edge (margin) than the punter.